For a turkey, Thanksgiving is an increasingly unlikely event

As Nassim Nicholas Taleb, probability researcher and author of The Black Swan, explains

A Turkey is fed for a 1000 days—every days [sic] confirms to its statistical department that the human race cares about its welfare “with increased statistical significance”. On the 1001st day, the turkey has a surprise.

Now substitute investment banking for the turkey…

This entry was posted on Friday, September 19th, 2008 at 10:25 am and is filed under Statistical Analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

One Response to “For a turkey, Thanksgiving is an increasingly unlikely event”

  1. hubschrauber Says:
    November 30, 2008 at 1:35 pm | Reply

    We look back on a Thanksgiving with Turkey too, but I guess you story was made with more fun than our celebration.
    http://hundeseite.wordpress.com/2008/11/30/looking-back-on-thanksgiving-2008/

    Best regards from Tootsie, Lake Michigan, now living in Germany.

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